Friday, July 19, 2019

What?! Yet Another Frackin' Lie?!

From here and here:

Don’t hold your breath waiting for a coherent pre-election debate about the mother-of-all-issues facing this republic, namely, that we can’t afford the living arrangements Americans think of as “normal” anymore. This quandary has stalked us since the millennium turned. It thunders through all the activities of daily life, and the tensions emanating from it are so agonizing and difficult to face that our politics have deflected off into the kind of hysteria spawned by bad dreams.

As the great Wendell Berry pointed out years ago, this is about the nation’s home economics: energy and resources in, production out, surplus wealth saved. America had a brush with reality in 2008 when all the distortions of our home economics came together and whapped the country between the eyes with a two-by-four.
Our energy-in was faltering. US oil production had fallen to a new low of under 4 million barrels a day and we were importing around 15 million. We papered over the problem with borrowed money in ever-larger amounts. This dynamic prompted ever riskier work-arounds on Wall Street, especially “innovations” in securitized debt, which invited criminal shenanigans. It blew up badly. Wealth vaporized. Industries collapsed. Homes and jobs were lost. 

Lives ruined.

The fairy-tale narrative since then is that technology rode to the rescue. The shale oil miracle “solved” the energy-in problem. Sure seems like it. But lots of things aren’t what they seem to be. Shale oil was a neat stunt. Turns out you can produce a helluva lot of it by paying more to pull it out the ground than you get from selling it. You can goose the process nicely by paying for it with borrowed money. And so it has gone. America now produces a new record of over 12 million barrels a day, and most of the companies doing it can’t make a red cent. And since it is increasingly obvious that they won’t ever pay back the money they borrowed before, they are unlikely to get new loans to continue their profitless operations.
Chart by The Motley Fool
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Notice how rapidly shale oil production shot up after 2008. It’s worth a peek at analyst Steve St. Angelo’s latest essay on shale oil company debt (Finance Costs Are Killing the Shale Industry) to understand just how this stunt worked. As blogger Tim Morgan at Surplus Energy Economicspoints out, the dis-economics of  energy production — and shale oil in particular — are stealthily damaging everyday life: “…the world economy is already suffering from these effects, and these have prompted the adoption of successively riskier forms of financial manipulation in a failed effort to sustain economic ‘normality.’”

That tells you exactly why the stock markets are at record highs now, along with US oil production. What the nation doesn’t get is that the shale oil industry is sure to collapse, and at least as rapidly as it shot up. So, expect the stock markets to collapse with it, along with tremendous collateral damage to all the other instruments that represent “money” — bonds, currencies, and their derivatives. It will make the 2008 episode look like a mere overturned poker table when it happens. In the meantime, many of the activities enabled by the oil industry are wrecking the planet, not just CO2emissions, but the plastics and chemical industries especially. So, the oil quandary bites at both ends: damned if it quits on us and damned if it keeps going.

That’s the main issue of our time. We’re faced with the imminent and rather drastic re-organization of everyday life in America without oil. It should be reasonable to assume that the process will be disorderly, and the longer we ignore it, the more disorderly it will be. Granted, it is a tall order for politicians to talk about things this scary.

The hard truth is that intelligent responses to this quandary would require heroic effort and painful change — and would probably be emotionally unacceptable to voters. It would entail the dismantling of suburbia and all of the activities associated with it, a severe shrinking of government at every level, the abandonment of most of our military playthings and overseas commitments, a wholesale overturning of Agri-Biz as currently practiced (along with a transition to smaller scale farming with a much higher percentage of the population working at it), and a stupefying aggregate loss of perceived wealth.

I’m describing events that go far beyond the common understanding of political revolution — though these discontinuities will surely produce political and social strife of a high order. This mega-issue and its spinoffs are what looms behind all the pitiful political comedy of the moment, especially the incendiary buffooneries of race and “gender.” Ponder this as you read the latest New York Times sponsored melodramas about “white supremacy” and the unfair pay in women’s soccer tournaments.


The UN's Agenda 21 and Agenda 2030 Dissected

From here:

Connecting the Dots of the UN Agendas to a Totalitarian State

The biggest mess that the united States has gotten into comes through the ties we’ve had with the anti-American, anti-Christian United Nations.  Trillions of dollars have been spent at the expense of Americans to fund the organization that is doing everything it can to undermine American sovereignty, dumb down our posterity and control the entire world.  Among those things is Agenda 21 and Agenda 2030, along with several other agenda the UN has proposed.  Understand that though these agendas were expressed in treaties, the united States never ratified those treaties yet, they are being implemented in America today.
With that said, there is an op-ed out by Rosanne Lindsay at Activist Post that connects the dots for you if you have not connected them yourself.
The following is her article:
If you connected all the dots to the various United Nations (U.N.) Agendas, would you create a map of mass regionalization and an eventual Totalitarian State?
Let us count the ways…

Agenda 21: Global Regional Plans Implemented Locally

According to the author of Behind the Green Mask, Rosa Koire says that “U.N. Agenda 21 is an agenda for the 21st century. It  is an inventory and control plan; inventory of all land, water, all minerals, all plants, all animals, all construction, all means of production, all food, all energy, all information, and all human beings in the world.” It’s about moving populations into concentrated city centers and clearing them out of rural areas under “Smart Growth.” Under the guise of “Sustainability,” Agenda 21 is the hijacking of the environmental movement.
Agenda 21 is top-down hierarchy, moving away from current government structure based on elected positions in Federal-State-County-City, to a global-regional-neighborhood structure without elections. Currently hundreds of millions of federal dollars are going to cities to create regional plans to give over control of land, and land use, to corporations. For instance, the federal government gave the Telecom Industry new powers to sidestep over the public right-of-way for the roll out of 5G technology by removing regulatory barriers that might prevent infrastructure.
In an order last year by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), If Verizon wants to build a 5G network in a city, the local government is limited in how much it can charge in application fees, and is pushed to approve permits quickly.These rules also mean cities are limited in how they can respond to residents who are upset about equipment going up near them. Many local leaders have spoken out against the FCC’s rules, dozens of whom have banded together to file a lawsuit to overturn it, which has advanced to the Tenth Circuit.
“[T]he FCC is forcing cities to race to the courthouse to defend the most basic of local government rights—the authority to manage and seek fair compensation from private users that seek to employ public assets,” Tom Cochran, the CEO and executive director of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, said in a statement.

Sustainable Development Agenda

U.N. Sustainable Development Agenda seek to redistribute wealth away from the middle class to lower the standard of living and, at the same time, reduce the population. The 17 sustainable development goals include goal #2: End hunger through the control of all food production. See my article on how the U.N. seeks to feed the world with crickets.
Sustainability is fomented through crisis, artificial scarcity, and forced conservation known as rationing. It is the excuse to partner science with religion to combat Climate Change, as the Pope described in his June 2015 encyclical.  Climate Change legislationin California is tied directly to international influences of U.N. Agendas 21 and 2030 for Sustainable Development. Yet, impacts from the government’s cloud seeding and geo-engineering programs continue unabated. Smart Cities will design growth patterns, redesign cities, and herd people into stackable housing through behavior modification, zoning and land use controls, and tax on toll roads.

Artificial Intelligence (A.I.)

The 5G rollout is necessary for “The Internet of Things” in a future of A.I. where techie geeks are thinking up new ways to make you, and the things around you, smarter. For those that missed it, there is a new Church of The A.I. god. The latest god-bot religion is founded by former Google executive Anthony Levandowski, and comes with a website called As if to drive this message home, Google’s director of engineering, Ray Kurzweil, believes humans will be robot hybrids by 2030. This reflects a Transhumanist Agenda.
Humans will never be the same again, partly because for years, scientists have been using CRISPR gene-editing technologyto alter DNA through vaccines and drug therapies. They hope to be able to bring extinct species back from the dead as one of their marvel feats.
The U.N. Agendas pave the way for a seamless transition from the individual to the group mindset as part of the A.I. Agenda. There will be no need for voting since there is no need for the individual voter. A Totalitarian, Transhumanist, state is being developed worldwide under a few select corporations: a fascist Corpratocracy. Agenda 21 and 2030 represents a world without borders to allow the free movement of workers, goods and services, all while reducing wages.  The politically correct name for this movement?
Social Equity.
However, not your social equity, but equity for corporations to exploit, manage, surveil and control individuals in tightly packed dense “stack and pack” cities.  Control is a vital part of the plan.
What is at stake?
Individuality and individual sovereignty. The most important private property is your body.  Lost identity falls under the mask of “unity” rhetoric. Unity, under the guise of uniformity and conformity, looks like a genderless society. Genderless means males and females no longer exist. When males and females no longer exist, there is no procreation of the human species. The agenda is depicted as U.N. Goal #5 Gender Equality. The U.N. message is this:  Gender equality is not only a fundamental human right, but a necessary foundation for a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable world. 
The U.N. is implementing “new legal frameworks” to grant “new rights” to groups, to end gender-based discrimination in every country. Government granted rights are merely privileges. What the U.N giveth, it can taketh away. What does the U.N goal look like in reality?  The answer is disclosed in the news headlines, which are codes that set the stage for the outcome. The UN counts on you not seeing the Big Picture to connect the dots to the loss of your identity from non-gender, inter-sex birth certificates to driver’s licenses to tax-subsidized surgeries for those who want to change their gender.

50+ Years Of U.N. Weather Modification Projects

Climateviewer 3D, maps
While the UN claims that Chemtrails are imaginary, they have been tracing weather modification projects worldwide between the years 1952 and 1999 as recorded by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization. Cloudseeding enhances and targets precipitation, and has been going on since the 1800s.  Need a deeper snowpack for ski resorts? Click on Utah and find out that they can increase the snowpack. Have a fire to put out? Call the companies that will cause it to rain and charge you for it! China spent hundreds of millions of dollars to control the weather during the Beijing Olympics. But don’t expect them to take the blame for causing floods.
The Weather Modification map includes data on the apparatus involved, agents applied and the techniques used in each event. It also includes both positive and negative results of some of the completed projects, funding sources such as government agencies and private companies. It even includes expert opinions and law cases on the topic in order for you to get a complete picture of the benefits and drawbacks of such programs.

Seize The Opportunity

Rosa Koire, in her video interview UN Agenda 2030 Exposed, suggests that there is an opportunity now to:
  • Stand up
  • Speak out
  • refuse to collaborate
  • refuse to cooperate
  • expose collaborators
  • work together to defund these plans
  • demand what it is the corporations want to give us.
As this is happening worldwide, most know nothing about it since the mainstream press is owned by five corporations.
You are not going to get this information from the mainstream press. So you need to be your own press. You need to educate yourself. You need to get out there and educate your neighbor, your community, your real community. You need to help your children understand that they are being indoctrinated from pre-kindergarten to post graduate school…
All of us have a responsibility to ourselves and to others. This is true community, to work for personal freedom. And always remember even if we do work as a group, we’re all individuals in those groups and we answer only to ourselves.  This is essential. As free human beings are free and we need to continue to be free.. – Rosa Koire

Rosanne Lindsay is a writer, blogger, and Naturopathic healer. She is the author of two books, The Nature of Healing: Heal the Body, Heal the Planet, and her story of thyroid disease reversal: Free Your Voice, Heal Your Thyroid, Reverse Thyroid Disease Naturally. Find her at Nature of Healing on Facebook. Consult with her (Skype or Zoom consults available) at Subscribe to her blog at
Article posted with permission from Sons Of Liberty Media

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

The Permanent Recession

From here:

Re-posted by Tyler Durden 15 July 2019:

It’s Been a Great Recession for a Few; Let’s Do it All Again!

This month the economic expansion brought to you by your Federal Reserve and by US government largess becomes the longest expansion in the history of the United States! That’s something, right? Something? Let’s take an honest look at what we now call great.
By “the longest expansion” we mean the longest period in which US GDP has been growing without a recession. Now, that’s something to crow about, right?
Not so fast for many reasons. It’s also been the most anemic expansion on the books, and it’s not too hard to see why it’s been the longest, having nothing at all to do with a great economy. It has cost us far more than any expansion (by an order of magnitude) because we’ve piled up ten times the national debt over any amount we accumulated during previous expansions. (I’ve said before, it’s easy to let the “good times” roll when you are buying it all on the company credit card.) We also quadrupled the size of the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. That didn’t cost anything, but we sure didn’t get much bang for the buck! We actually got less bang than in any previous expansion!

The permanent recession

Sure, we got outstanding growth in stocks, but growth in business revenue has been pathetic. Growth in corporate development has been even worse (i.e., new plants, improved productivity, etc.) Growth in earnings was decent, except for the fact that it is entirely a feint because it was created mostly by reducing the numbers of outstanding shares over which earnings are divided, not so much by growing business. (Why do you think Wall Street prefers to talk about “earnings per share, ” EPS, instead of just actual profits?)
We can pretend the strength in EPS was because business has been booming during the “long economic expansion,” but it wasn’t. We got less production growth out of this expansion than in any other expansion in US history, and that is easy to prove with the Fed’s own data. GDP went up, but the rate of growth in GDP has been in secular decline during each expansion: (Expansion periods are the periods between the gray recession zones in the Fed graph below.)
Of course, those are percentage changes, and the higher any number gets, the harder it becomes to get as big of a percentage change off that number. So, not so horrible, right?
Well, the real numbers look worse because, you see, the government has changed the way it calculates GDP over the years to make things look better when measured against history. If you go back to tracking GDP the way it was historically calculated (if for no other reason than to keep the formula being used consistent across the chart), it looks like this: (Top line in the chart below is the line from the Fed chart above; bottom line is what you get if you stay with the same formula throughout the chart.)
Oops. Worse than pathetic. Using consistent accounting through time, we discover we have actually been in receding GDP (recession) since 2000 with the exception of one little bump in 2004. We don’t want to admit that, so we we’ll just ignore that by saying we improved our accounting methods over time.
And that is why I say “It’s been a great recession” because we never actually left the Great Recession. Rather than the longest expansion in US history, we’ve been enduring the longest recessionin US history ever since the dot-com bust. The above chart shows the GDP growth rate, and the REAL GDP “growth” rate, which has actually been contraction, not growth, for the past two decades if measured by historic standards. So long as GDP is growing, (above 0 on the chart above), we’re in expansion. Whenever GDP is shrinking (below 0 on the chart above), we’re in recession.
So, when you see financial commentators writing or talking about “the longest expansion on record,” this month, translate that in light of this article. It is only the longest expansion on record if you change the way you calculate GDP from the way previous records were calculated. It’s sort of like saying, “This person ran the longest marathon in history,” but not mention that we’ve reduced the length of the kilometer or mile by which we measure marathons.
The government (and the Fed) love to cook the books. They do it under the guise that old numbers really were not all that accurate, but if that were truly the reason, why is it the “corrections” and “adjustments” always serve to make the present regime’s numbers look better? (Perhaps people doing the calculations in the past were willing to be more conservative in terms of how much they patted themselves on the back for how well they were doing?)
Now you know why it doesn’t feel like things have really gotten any better for the average person. They haven’t. We’ve been living the last twenty years in a trickle-down recession that has only benefited the top 10%. Mostly, of course, the 1%.
One would think we might have gotten a little extra lift in GDP percentage-wise for massive amount of extra debt we took on. It’s not just the government that saddled itself with a shipload of extra debt. Corporations did the same, and total individual debt is deeper now than before the official “Great Recession” hit:
Per capita, consumer debt may not be deeper, since the population has grown massively through immigration; but I’ve not been quoting per capita GDP here either. For all that debt, we have seen less GDP improvement (even by the official numbers) than at any time in the past hundred years; but it gets worse than that because we’re very proud right now of also attaining the lowest unemployment rate in history. So, let’s take a look at that number, too.

Employment in statistics … is a good profession

The main people assuring themselves of future employment are the statistic manipulators. They are kept well busy.
Unemployment only appears to be at its lowest ever, but unemployment truthfully remains quite bad. You see, most people fell off the unemployment charts years ago during this “expansion” because their unemployed was expanded for so long that they got lost. The financial reporters have forgotten about that, though most of them never noticed it in the first place; but I wrote about this statistical manipulation here for years at the beginning of the Great Recession, until I just got tired of saying it.
Falling out of the official statistics happens in three main ways:
1) You only remain counted in unemployment stats for as long as you keep actively seeking work and qualifying for benefits. Period. Multitudes gave up seeking work years ago and chose earlier retirement or death or …? The stats stopped counting them when they, for whatever reasons, stopped looking for work.
2) You also fall off the list as soon as you use up all your available benefits because that is another way to no longer qualify. Millions used up all of their available benefits years ago.
3) You fall off the list when you replace your former full-time job with part-time work.
As a result we have the lowest labor participation rate in half a century. Even the Fed acknowledges that and pretends to be mystified as to why that is when it is as obvious as the gray hair on the Fed chair’s head.
All of that makes it easy to have an outstanding looking unemployment number that really is not representative at all of our labor situation.
REAL unemployment, factoring all of that back in, looks like the top line in the graph below: (The bottom two lines are the official measures of unemployment used by the US government and the Federal Reserve.)
The number of new jobs you keep hearing about is equally bogus, and I’ve pointed that out many times in the past, too. Now, however, as we crack open the champagne to celebrate the “longest expansion in history,” is a good time for a refresher on that.
We count part-time jobs as full-time jobs when we tally “new jobs,” but most of the new jobs created during this expansion were either part-time jobs that replaced full-time jobs or were jobs that offered lower pay or lower benefits. In fact, the number of part-time jobs in the economy is now 40% higher than it was the last time unemployment was this low! And those jobs typically don’t come with benefits and typically pay lower wages.
But it gets worse. Besides not counting new jobs in full-time equivalents, all of those new jobs are assumed to be additional people hired back into the labor force, but many were actually the same people counted twice! That is because they were people who went from holding one good full-time job to holding two part-time jobs in order to make ends meet, both of which offer no benefits and lower pay for each hour worked.
So, do you have to even wonder why it is we’ve seen the middle class deteriorate substantially during this great expansion? We’ve simply buried the truth in statistical smoke and mirrors.
Real wages have not gone up at all, so workers got no participation in the expansion. It all went to corporate owners, and with less disposable income workers certainly were not in a position to be investing in corporate ownership, other than in their retirement funds. So, maybe they benefited some there. Between the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, however, most laborers have barely made up for all that they lost in stock market excesses that were stripped away. If the present stock bubble bursts, they could easily wind up behind where they were two decades ago in REAL dollars.
(Stocks are way overpriced based on their CAPE average, which is probably the most historically accurate and meaningful average out there. So, yes, it’s a bubble. Many people are only willing to acknowledge bubbles after they burst, but I’m here to pop your bubble now.)

All Trumped up about nothing

Surely things have gotten better since Trump entered office, right?
According to the Congressional Research Services’ May, 2019, Report about the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (a.k.a. the Trump Tax Cuts):
This analysis examines the preliminary effects of the Act during the first year, 2018.
On the whole, the growth effects tend to show a relatively small (if any) first-year effect on the economy. Although growth rates cannot indicate the tax cut’s effects on GDP, they tend to rule out very large effects particularly in the short run. Although investment grew significantly, the growth patterns for different types of assets do not appear to be consistent with the direction and size of the supply-side incentive effects one would expect from the tax changes. This potential outcome may raise questions about how much longer-run growth will result from the tax revision.
Real wages grew more slowly than GDP: at 2.0% (adjusted by the GDP deflator) compared with 2.9% for overall real GDP. Such slower growth has occurred in the past. The real wage rate for production and nonsupervisory workers grew by 1.2%…. While evidence does indicate significant repurchases of shares, either from tax cuts or repatriated revenues, relatively little was directed to paying worker bonuses, which had been announced by some firms.
According to the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), actual growth rate [in 2018] was 2.9%, which is consistent with a small effect of the tax revision, perhaps even smaller than projected by most analysts…. The data appear to indicate that not enough growth occurred in the first year to cause the tax cut to pay for itself….
CRS Report
But this year will come in better, right? Well, let’s see: the first quarter came in at about the same as that 2.9%, but pretty much everyone anticipates the second quarter is about to come in worse. I say, substantially worse. We shall see.
If so, it means the new tax program has accomplished all it ever will because it was supposed to build in its successes year after year. Let’s hope Larry Kudlow, who helped mastermind the new tax regime, gets on the microphone a little more often to talk this puppy into preforming. So far, not much bang for the buck; but, hey, at least we exploded the national debt out of earthly orbit forever! That’s something, right?
Still, lets see how the trickle-down Trump plan actually panned out for workers:
Distributional analyses of the tax change suggested that the tax revision favored higher-income taxpayers, in part because most of the tax cut benefited corporations and in part because the individual income tax cut largely went to higher-income individuals…. During the debate about taxes, however, arguments were made that these corporate tax cuts would benefit workers due to growth in investment and the capital stock…. In the absence of the tax cuts, wages should grow with the economy and wage rates should grow as the capital stock grows. In addition, tight labor markets resulting from the approach to full employment should have put upward pressure on wage rates in any case. Evidence from 2018 indicated that labor compensation, adjusted to real values by the price indices for personal consumption expenditures, grew slower than output in general…. There is no indication of a surge in wages in 2018 … compared to history or relative to GDP growth….
Increased funds, whether accessed from abroad or through tax cuts, could be used in several ways: investment, paying down debt, increasing wages, paying wage bonuses, paying dividends, or repurchasing shares. During the passage of the tax revision and in the immediate aftermath, some argued that firms would use these funds to pay worker bonuses (as discussed in the previous section on wages). Subsequently, a number of firms announced bonuses, which in some cases they attributed to the tax cut. One organization that tracks these bonuses has reported a total of $4.4 billion.41 With US employment of 157 million, this amount is $28 per worker….
Much of these funds, the data indicate, has been used for a record-breaking amount of stock buybacks, with $1 trillion announced by the end of 2018.
CRS Report
What? It all went to the corporate owners? Who could have seen that coming?
I’m pretty sure that is precisely how I said two years ago this was going to turn out, and people just argued that I’m a Trump hater, not willing to give the plan a chance. (Actually, I just hated giving the government a chance to start racking up debt faster than our eyeballs can spin, knowing the benefits would all inure to the wealthy.)
Therefore, as my motto originally stated, “It’s been a great recession for a few.” That’s why I call my site “The GREAT Recession Blog.” For some it was great. Let’s do it all over again, so the good times can keep on rolling for the few and the mighty. That, of course, is exactly what the Fed plans to do by diving back toward zero-interest rates all over again. Therefore, to keep up with the times, I recently upgraded my motto to motto 2.0 for the Great Recession 2.0: “It was such a Great Recession, we’re heading back for more.”